New Forecasting Model by RavenPack Analyzes News to Predict the Winner of the 2020 US Presidential Election
An alternative to polls, this new approach uses sentiment analysis and media attention to forecast election results.
NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–#AlternativeData–RavenPack, a leading big data analytics provider, has launched a free and publicly available website, offering projections and analysis on the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
RavenPack’s forecasting model combines three key inputs:
- The level of media attention received by a presidential candidate, which has been found to be highly correlated with election success
- The sentiment for each candidate, measured from thousands of news stories about their policies and personal life, across all 50 US states.
- Social and economic sentiment by state, which provides a proxy for the sitting president’s approval rating and chances of reelection
The latest election forecasts alongside news and media monitoring is freely available at https://election.ravenpack.com
Research shows the forecasting model built by RavenPack’s Data Science team correctly predicted the winning candidate in 4 out of the 5 last U.S. presidential elections, with a confidence of greater than 75%, outperforming many traditional polling methods.
“Our news-driven methodology offers an alternative angle to traditional forecasting approaches such as polls or surveys and summarizes the complexities of the current political and socio-economic environment in the United States,” says Armando Gonzalez, CEO of RavenPack. “We thought the U.S. presidential election was an ideal opportunity to showcase the power of alternative data on broader use cases than the financial applications for which most of our clients use our data and technology.”
Users can freely download RavenPack’s election data, embed the full dashboard or widgets on their website, and subscribe to regular insights on the U.S. election.
The new election monitor builds on the success of RavenPack’s publicly available Coronavirus monitor which provides up-to-the-minute information on the current Covid-19 pandemic.
RavenPack (www.ravenpack.com) is the leading big data analytics provider for financial services. The company’s products allow clients to enhance returns, reduce risk, and increase efficiency by systematically incorporating the effects of public information in their models or workflows. RavenPack’s clients include the most successful hedge funds, banks, and asset managers in the world.
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